Rising Sales of Electric Vehicles
According to forecasts from Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF), electric vehicles could constitute nearly a third of new cars sold in the USA by 2027, provided current policies remain unchanged. Last year, 1.5 million new EVs were sold in the USA, accounting for 10% of the new car market. BNEF anticipates this number to rise to 4.5 million vehicles by 2027.
Goals and Criticism
BNEF suggests that this growth would almost meet President Biden's goal of having 50% EV sales by the end of the decade. However, General Motors has criticized this target as unrealistic. Nevertheless, if these numbers are achieved, the USA would be on track to sell 7.7 million EVs by 2030.
California Leading the Charge
California continues to lead the nation in EV sales. In 2023, one out of every four new cars sold in California had a charging port, and it is expected that by 2030, EVs will make up 65% of the new car market in the state. By 2040, this figure could rise to 90%, driven by stricter emissions regulations.
End of Combustion Engines
By 2035, California plans to end most sales of combustion engine vehicles, except for plug-in hybrids with a minimum electric range of 50 miles. Toyota is pushing for plug-in hybrids and aims to increase their electric range up to 120 miles. However, BNEF does not expect the market share of plug-in hybrids in the USA to exceed the current 20-25%.
Global Growth
Globally, BNEF expects continued growth in EV sales. Sales are projected to grow annually by 21% until 2027, following an average growth rate exceeding 60% between 2020 and 2023. The market share of EVs in the USA is likely to be lower than that in China and Europe.
