Where the two studies differ
ACEA's argument is about time, not ambition. A new cell plant takes close to a decade from announcement to full-scale output, according to the association, so a project launched today may only reach full capacity around 2035. ACEA wants local content rules phased in, with extra time for cells and cathode active materials.
T&E does not dispute that ramp-up is slow. It weights each announced project by the likelihood that it will be realised, and reports that the weighted pipeline is still large enough for the segments the rules would touch first: publicly funded cars.
Both sides work from the same announcements. The difference is how much of that pipeline they trust.
Cancelled projects and a halved German pipeline
Trust is the weak point. T&E states that a quarter of the cell capacity announced in Europe since 2022 has been cancelled or put on hold. Germany is hit hardest, with its project pipeline for 2035 halved. Two examples are ACC's abandoned plants in Kaiserslautern and Italy and the closure of Porsche's Cellforce subsidiary. We covered the production fallout of the ACC case in Stellantis halting output at Sochaux and Rennes as ACC cell supply ran short.
On the other side of the ledger, PowerCo, Volkswagen's battery subsidiary, started unified cell production in Salzgitter in December 2025. Once that plant ramps up, it adds substantial European volume.
The gap is upstream, not in cells
Cells are the part of the chain where T&E sees enough capacity. The materials that go into them are not. For cathode active material (CAM), 529,000 tonnes of annual European capacity have been announced for 2030. After weighting by probability of implementation, about 177,000 tonnes remain.
pCAM, the cathode precursor, looks worse. Announced projects total 552.6 GWh of cell equivalent. T&E expects only 217.9 GWh of that to be achieved by 2030.
Put those numbers against real pack sizes and the size of the gap becomes visible. At 77 kWh per vehicle, 217.9 GWh is roughly 2.8 million packs. The announced 552.6 GWh would cover about 7.2 million. For CAM, common industry rules of thumb put cathode material consumption at roughly 1,000 to 1,500 tonnes per GWh, which turns 177,000 tonnes into about 120 to 175 GWh, or 1.5 to 2.3 million 77 kWh packs.
Pack sizes vary far more than that single figure suggests. Our catalog of 67 electric models lists usable battery capacity for each one, and a city hatchback and a seven-seat family SUV do not pull the same amount of cathode material out of the supply chain.
T&E therefore wants the planned cell and CAM requirements kept, and minimum quotas added for pCAM and anode active material from 2032. Anode material is where scrap and recycling routes are being tested; we wrote about Vianode and FAAM turning anode production scrap into battery-grade graphite.
Who owns the capacity
Ownership is a separate question from location. T&E reports that more than 85 per cent of active European cell capacity is owned by companies based outside Europe, with South Korean manufacturers accounting for 72 per cent. LG Energy Solution, Samsung SDI and SK On run plants in Poland and Hungary. CATL operates a factory in Arnstadt near Erfurt and began test production at its second European site in Debrecen, Hungary, in September 2026.
For the local content rules, what counts is where the cell is made, not where the owner is registered. A Korean or Chinese factory inside the EU satisfies the criterion.
What is still undecided
The Industrial Accelerator Act remains a draft that member states and the European Parliament are still discussing, and the local content provisions are part of that negotiation rather than settled law. T&E's own figures show where the risk sits. Its cell forecast depends on medium-probability projects being completed, and its material figures depend on projects that are further from a final investment decision. The 217.9 GWh pCAM number is a probability-weighted estimate, not a signed construction contract.
Source: https://www.electrive.com/2026/10/01/te-analysis-sufficient-european-battery-cells-by-2030/